A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
